A Weak Shilling Does Not Always Indicate a Doomed Economy
In the last quarter of 2020, the Kenya Shilling has been on a sharp decline. On 30th November, the currency fell beyond the 110 mark. It was trading at 110.07 which raised eyebrows among Kenyans. Some discussions imply that the currency should always be on the rise. But did you know that there is a positive and negative effect whenever the currency moves towards any direction?
In short, none is better between a weak or a strong Kenya Shilling against the dollar depending on the context you look at it. Meaning, there are sectors that suffers a blow in case of any of the two situations.
Therefore, if the efforts are solely to make the Shilling strong, it could only serve the interests of particular sectors. And most of the time, that will be the import industry. On the other hand, majority of export dealings have an advantage in the case of a weak shilling.
And that is where the Central Bank comes into play championing for a competitive exchange rate for balanced interest of the importers and exporters. The Central Bank of Kenya comes up with a policy atmosphere that does not aim at a certain direction of the exchange rate.
A weak shilling
Whenever the shilling declines, there is a negative impact because it means that financing imports becomes more expensive. On the other side, a weak shilling is good news for the country’s exports. It leads to reduced foreign prices of the commodities exported from the country which leads to a competitive edge in the market.
Moreover, people increasingly prefer to invest locally than internationally in such a situation which has the potential to increase the income earning opportunities. Besides, it discourages ultimate consumption of lavish imports. The above mentioned are critical in improvement of current account balance and promotion of economic growth.
Furthermore, there are countries that have intentionally harnessed the supremacy of a weaker currency. In fact, some countries for a long time have faced criticism for unethically devaluing their currency, thus having an unjust advantage in the international trade over the major world economies.
The downside is on the developing countries like Kenya, where there is huge reliance on imported oil. A weak currency could lead to inflation.
A strong shilling
A strong shilling has the potential to dampen the economic growth by reducing the competitiveness of the country’s exports. Products from the country become expensive in the international market while imports become cheaper. It means that it becomes very cheap to import goods which pose a threat to the domestic competitive industries.
A strengthening shilling is no different from a tax hike. Local goods manufacturers suffer a burden as it becomes cheaper to import the same products. The excess capacity could lead to layoffs as a result of recession.
At this moment, you would now wonder which way to go. Economists hold the opinion that a suitable exchange rate should be at a level that makes the country’s exports commodities competitive in the global market.
The Central Bank has a role to monitor and regulate the game because the weakening or strengthening of the currency needs to happen in line with the economic factors. Such a regulation is critical in ensuring no negative impact on economic growth of a country that would discourage investments.
Fred Kabiru
Fred Kabiru is a content creator and SEO specialist. He is passionate and experienced about Business, Digital Marketing, News and Technology. He is a believer of content worth reading for a brand worth following.
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